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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd