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"I will remain in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if the discussion was successful, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for another conversation next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. In the hour before our chat started, Starmer had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

As the new year begins, the Prime Minister seems to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly appeared to have resulted in better spirits than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.

But are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they think his political fate are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the PM is that numerous of his colleagues believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he insisted he'd be "evaluated at the general election", insisting nobody would take his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the struggle of our times and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

The May Elections

The challenge for the PM is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, maybe too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But although he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would resign, even if one of his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was reasonably anxious for things to get better. He tried to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their initial rocky year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he did not put a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His central message is that in 2026 the country will "turn the corner".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a bolder strategy, with increased political clarity, more vigour, more pace and more urgency, his points were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a different script?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political risks as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be content with these events seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "longtime proponent of international law" but the public "just haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Critics called for him to denounce it before we spoke. And the administration is likely to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also always been simmering tension in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's pursuing that, but his new firmer pledge to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will likely provoke accusations that he is going back on his vow never to try to overturn the choices that followed Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to