Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
